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Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen’s 56.2 percent completion rate is the battleground statistic of this year’s draft. His critics cite it as damning evidence of his inaccuracy. His supporters attack the number with arguments like:
• Allen’s completion rate is low because his receiving corps was weak, and…
• Allen’s completion rate is low because he threw more bombs and fewer high-percentage screen passes than most prospects, and…nfl jerseys from china
• Stats are for losers, you loser.wholesale nfl jerseys
Every good football analyst knows it’s highly misleading to equate completion percentage with accuracy. But completion percentages should be used to inform detailed examinations and film breakdowns for every quarterback.
Derrik Klassen of the Optimum Scouting Draft Guide uses a metric called True Accuracy to take some of the fluff and bubble screens out of college completion percentages. The system awards bonuses for deep completions and penalties for completions behind the line of nfl jerseys wholesale scrimmage to put every prospect from every college system on equal footing.
And? Josh Allen finished dead last among this year’s quarterback prospects, with a 59.7 percent True Accuracy rate. Every other significant prospect checked in at over 65 percent.
Klassen’s research also revealed that Allen’s completion rate was shockingly low on 11- to 15-yard passes (50.0 percent complete), as well as one- to five-yard passes (71.8 percent) and even passes behind the line of scrimmage (64.1 percent). Allen’s completion rate on screen passes is lower than most quarterbacks’ completion rates on all passes!nfl jerseys china
The Football Outsiders QBASE projection model, which incorporates completion rate as a primary variable, gives nfl wholesale jerseys Allen an alarming 62.7 percent chance of becoming a draft bust. Quarterback prospects with statistical profiles like Allen’s in recent NFL history? C.J. Beathard, Connor Cook, Christian Hackenberg, Jake Locker and Andrew Walter—a who’s who of big-armed guys whose stats were given the “Um, actually” treatment.
Oh, and Allen’s numbers were not significantly better in 2016, when he had better talent around him, than they were last year.
Discard or explain away completion percentage at your own peril. A low college completion rate is a reliable historic indicator that a quarterback will struggle in the NFL. Allen may prove to be an exception, but every NFL evaluator knows that when you start drafting exceptions, you had better be right.